President Donald Trump, a politician long celebrated in West Virginia, has taken a step that could deeply hurt one of the state’s most vital industries—coal. Despite the state giving him overwhelming support in two elections, with over 70% of the vote each time, Trump’s latest move—a sharp escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—could backfire on the very communities that stood by him.
This week, Trump announced a sweeping 84% tariff increase on Chinese imports. China wasted no time retaliating, and one of its targets is American coal. The timing couldn’t be worse. West Virginia supplies over half of all U.S. coal exports to China, and if those exports become too expensive, buyers will look to cheaper coal from Australia, Russia, or Indonesia. That’s a potentially devastating blow to West Virginia’s coal sector, which is already struggling due to declining demand at home.
Trump tried to appease coal-producing states by signing executive orders aimed at boosting coal plants and exports. But environmental groups, like the Sierra Club, argue these orders actually weaken pollution safeguards and increase energy costs for everyday Americans.
Meanwhile, the Ohio River Valley Institute analyzed the broader effects of the trade war, highlighting that China, Mexico, and Canada are among the top trading partners for West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky. These countries together bought around $100 billion in goods from the region in 2024. Had these tariffs been in place last year, they would’ve cost businesses $21 billion—equal to an added tax of nearly $800 per West Virginian.
West Virginia coal exports to China reached over six million tons in 2024, making them a lifeline for a state heavily dependent on mining. But the new tariffs make U.S. coal less competitive, risking jobs for the roughly 14,000 West Virginians employed in the coal industry.
Many of the state’s counties rely heavily on coal revenues to fund schools, road repairs, and essential public services. The threat to coal exports puts all of that at risk.
Industry leaders are raising concerns. Chris Hamilton of the West Virginia Coal Association warns that tariffs threaten the state’s coal-dependent economy. Even though U.S. coal accounts for only a small share of China’s overall coal usage, West Virginia’s stake is significant.
China is trying to reduce its coal consumption and now generates 35% of its energy from renewables. That’s far ahead of the U.S., where renewables make up just 22% of electricity.
Energy analysts like Terence Headley believe the U.S. might redirect coal exports to other nations, such as Israel, which recently faced coal shortages due to conflict in Gaza. Israel still generates about 22% of its electricity from coal. But it won’t be easy.
Many international buyers have long-term contracts and limited flexibility. Global trends are moving toward cleaner energy sources, which means shrinking opportunities for coal in general.
The Marcellus and Utica Shale basins under West Virginia contain massive reserves of natural gas. China has previously shown interest in investing in the state’s energy sector, including natural gas. But tensions caused by Trump’s aggressive trade tactics may scare off potential partnerships.
Financial experts are warning about the potential consequences. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, cautions that China won’t be passive. If pushed, it will respond in ways that strategically damage U.S. industries, especially those like coal that rely heavily on exports.
Trump’s effort to pressure China may have unintended consequences—costing West Virginia jobs, weakening local economies, and turning voters against the very leader they once embraced.
By escalating the trade war, Trump may be pulling the rug out from under the state that helped put him in the White House. The coal jobs he promised to save are now on shakier ground than ever.
